Why Donald Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House without results
The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
According to Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a long record of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.
The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – Russia quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.
So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.