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The historic Ashes series may offer one cause for celebration, but this series will also witness the Aussie side celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day before the squad was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Squad Fascination Builds

For two or three years there has been mounting curiosity with the average age of this side and particularly the bowling attack. It is unusual to have almost every player near a Test team being over 30, except for young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a disadvantage: a Test team boasting a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

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Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Younger bowlers have briefly joined teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any team knows that having a batch of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of similarly-timed departures, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a process that would certainly be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, transition is upon them, imposed on this Aussie team in the space of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only miss the first Test, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the team balance undergoes a far greater shift with two key bowlers absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Tests coming on after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Debutant Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories portray him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the field on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what new injuries the first Test may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after that match, given how tricky stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of getting injured early in series and a history of minor injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the series may witness the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition setting in much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane choice, but after that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this format is not the place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the visiting team. You can hear that train a-coming, rolling round the bend, and England ain’t seen the success since they don’t know when.