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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.